Mystic Clegg

A Tactical Mystery Tour

The polls have been changing every day.

There’s another week of campaigning till polling day.

The pollsters have never seen an election like this.

So they don’t know how to make predictions.

It’s hard to predict turnout.

Impossible.

How many remainers will turn out?

How many Brexitpots will turn out?

How many people who don’t care one way of the other?

Some places had local elections this month, will they vote as much as everyone else?

Different regions have a different number of seats.

Different regions have a different candidates and parties.

Some regions have big local issues that make them buck the national trend.

Some regions are actually countries

In the next week, there might be a terrorist attack

In the next week, the world might be rocked by a major scandal

In the next week, the might be a global apocalypse.

Suppose there’s parties a and b.

Suppose I want to vote tactically to make sure they, between them, maximise their seats.

Suppose a have 10% and b have 9%.

Depending on the threshold, it could be that 9.1% is enough, so I want to back b.

It could be that 10.1% is required, so I want to back a.

But we don’t know how many votes each party have, that’s the point.

And we don’t know how many votes each party need.

Unless you know and predict every single voter.

Even the ones who don’t know how they’ll vote yet.

Or whether they’ll vote.

A or B? B or A? Nobody knows. It’s a known unknown.

But the tactical voting sites say vote Lib Dem everywhere,

Who are they? MYSTIC FLIPPING MEG?